This Oscar season is absolutely insane. This is a wide open race and the toughest to predict in sometime (though it is reminiscent of 2015). I think the nominees are pretty set, save for a few surprises here and there, but who is going to win is a complete mystery. Maybe the nominations will tell us something, maybe they’ll make it more confusing. I’m expecting some crazy surprises, but for now, here are my 2019 Oscar predictions.
1 – A STAR IS BORN
2 – ROMA
3 – BLACKkKLANSMAN
4 – GREEN BOOK
5 – THE FAVOURITE
6 – VICE
7 – BLACK PANTHER
8 – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
9 – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
- ANALYSIS – I’m relatively confident on most of these, it’s the bottom of this list where it gets tricky. With the rule that there can be anywhere from five to ten nominees, it’s tough to pick how many will exactly get in. Will it be ten? Will it be seven? We don’t know. I’m leaning towards nine though, as that is the amount the Academy went with the last two years. But what will be the final ones to get in? Is there enough goodwill for Bohemian Rhapsody? Can If Beale Street Could Talk or First Man make a splash? What about a surprise like Cold War? First Reformed? Mary Poppins Returns? A Quiet Place? It is going to be an interesting nomination morning.
1 – ALFONSO CUARÓN – ROMA
2 – BRADLEY COOPER – A STAR IS BORN
3 -SPIKE LEE – BLACKkKLANSMAN
4 – ADAM MCKAY – VICE
5 – YORGOS LANTHIMOS – THE FAVOURITE
- ANALYSIS – Like Best Picture, I am confident at the top with Cuarón, Cooper, and Lee. The remaining two slots are really tough to pick. I’m picking McKay, as he received a DGA nomination and Vice keeps gaining momentum. Peter Farrelly of Green Book also got nominated for the DGA, however, Oscar has not matched the DGA nominations perfectly since 2009. It’s anyone’s game for the fifth slot, with Farrelly, Lanthimos, Coogler, Chazelle, Jenkins, Pawlikowski all making cases. Don’t be surprised if we see a surprise or two here.
1 – CHRISTIAN BALE – VICE
2 – BRADLEY COOPER – A STAR IS BORN
3 – RHAMI MALEK – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
4 – VIGGO MORTENSEN – GREEN BOOK
5 – ETHAN HAWKE – FIRST REFORMED
- ANALYSIS – It’s a three horse race between Bale, Cooper, and Malek, either of which could win. The bottom two are tough. I think Mortensen is safe. People love Green Book and he’s been great on the circuit. The fifth spot will come down to Ethan Hawke for First Reformed and John David Washington for BlackKklansman. Hawke tore up the critics circles, yet Washington has come on strong with a Golden Globe and SAG nomination. The Academy has been known to make some bold nominations (see Javier Bardem for Biutiful) so I’m leaning towards Hawke. A Washington nomination would show BlackKklansman has a lot of support and could pull of a Best Picture win.
1 – GLENN CLOSE – THE WIFE
2 – LADY GAGA – A STAR IS BORN
3 – OLIVIA COLEMAN – THE FAVOURITE
4 – MELISSA MCCARTHY – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
5 – EMILY BLUNT – MARY POPPINS RETURNS
- ANALYSIS – It’ll be Close vs Gaga, with Coleman playing spoiler (I could totally see a 2002 Nicholson vs Day-Lewis and Adrian Brody pulling off an upset). McCarthy is looking real good for her second nomination as well. I don’t think she’ll win, but she’ll be nominated. I am praying Emily Blunt could get her first nomination ever this year for Mary Poppins Returns and with Golden Globe and SAG nominations, she’s looking good for a nomination. But don’t be surprised if Yalitza Aparicio from Roma to make the cut. If Roma gets this nomination, it will immediately be the frontrunner for Best Picture.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1 – MAHERSHALA ALI – GREEN BOOK
2 – RICHARD E. GRANT – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
3 – SAM ELLIOT – A STAR IS BORN
4 – ADAM DRIVER – BLACKkKLANSMAN
5 – TIMOTHEE CHALAMET – BEAUTIFUL BOY
- ANALYSIS – I’m pretty confident in these five. These have been the five that have been popping up all year and that will continue to the big show. There are a couple performances that are on the outside looking in in the form of Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther and Sam Rockwell for Vice. If the Academy loves either of these films, I could see one of them getting in in place of Chalamet, who’s film isn’t getting nominated anywhere else.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1 – REGINA KING – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
2 – AMY ADAMS – VICE
3 – RACHEL WEISZ – THE FAVOURITE
4 – EMMA STONE – THE FAVOURITE
5 – CLAIR FOYE – FIRST MAN
- ANALYSIS – The nominees for this category are relatively easier to pick. Like Supporting Actor, all the actresses here have made their way around the circuit throughout the season. The only one who is in danger of missing the nomination is Foy, who would probably be replaced by Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place. If Blunt misses her Best Actress nomination, I think she’ll pull it out here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1 –THE FAVOURITE
2 – GREEN BOOK
3 – ROMA
4 – VICE
5 – FIRST REFORMED
- ANALYSIS – A relatively weak year for Original Screenplay, especially compared to last year. The Favourite is going to get a slew of nominations, particularly below the line, but this could be where the reward it. The love for Green Book will get it a nomination, as with Roma and Vice. The last slot is open and could go to anyone. I’m pulling for Paul Schrader’s First Reformed, though Eight Grade and A Quiet Place are close behind.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1 – BLACKkKLANSMAN
2 – A STAR IS BORN
3 –CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
4 – BLACK PANTHER
5 – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
- ANALYSIS – Could Spike Lee win his first Oscar? He’ll for sure be nominated and is the frontrunner here with BlackKklansman. A Star is Born is almost a sho-in, as I feel it will lead the nomination field. Logan got in last year, so Black Panther should make it this year. There’s a number of options for the final slots, like Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, Leave No Trace, Crazy Rich Asians, and First Man to name a few. This is a loaded category.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1 – SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
3 – INCREDIBLES 2
3 – ISLE OF DOGS
4 – MIRAI
5 – RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
- ANALYSIS – Up until last month, I thought this was Incredibles 2 to lose. But now, Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse is a clear frontrunner. The other nominees should be in there. The only other film that could possibly crack the top five is Early Man, but that’d be a stretch.
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